Warm February, Foggy May: How Delhi-NCR Weather Reflects Dangers of Climate Change

Delhi-NCR witnessed a weather roller coaster in May, which is normally the hottest month of the year in India’s capital.

At the start of the month, an untimely rare climate phenomenon occurred as a thick layer of fog enveloped certain areas of the city, a characteristic usually observed during winter. The temperature plunged to 15.8°C on May 4, marking the coldest May morning in the capital in 41 years.

The lowest temperature ever recorded in May was 15.1°C on May 2, 1969.

The often dry month of May also recorded 111 mm rainfall, which was a remarkable 262% above the normal average of 30.7 mm for the month, according to the data supplied by the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) for Delhi’s Safdarjung weather observatory, which provides a marker for the national capital.

A total of 11 wet days was recorded in the month gone by, which was much higher than the average 2.7 number of rainy days in the capital.

According to reports, the rains brought down the average maximum temperature for the month to 36.8°C, the lowest recorded since 1987.

The beginning of the month also saw hailstorm lashing parts of Delhi.

“Typically, Delhi-NCR and parts of North India experience rainfall during the winter months, but this did not occur this time, possibly due to a shift in the weather pattern,” explained Dr. Uday Pratap Shahi, Associate Professor at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture and Technology (SVPUAT), Meerut, attributing the weather swing to series of western disturbances.

These weather anomalies in May are not exclusive to this region of India. A more detailed analysis of meteorological data reveals that we are witnessing what experts refer to as a climate change phenomenon.

Glaciers are melting at a pace unseen in recorded human history besides sea levels are rising. Countries are experiencing more numbers of droughts, extreme heat waves, floods, storms and hurricanes, torrential unseasonal rainfalls among other extreme weather events hurting livelihoods and infrastructure as well as health, food, energy and water security.

India witnessed its hottest February since 1901 this year, with maximum temperatures touching 29.54 degrees Celsius (monthly national average). The five warmest Februaries in India have all been in the last 14 years, according to a Hindustan Times report, indicating the impact of the climate crisis.

March was equally challenging, as large portions of the country encountered hailstorms and heavy unseasonal rain, resulting in significant damage to standing crops in various regions.

The standing wheat crop was worst impacted, along with other Rabi crops (winter sown), including potato and mustard. The mangoes, which started flowering during the time, also bore the brunt of the adverse weather conditions.

Even during April, according to IMD, the actual rainfall in Delhi was 23% above normal than the long period average for the month.

“There has been an observed change in the timing of weather in recent years. This time around there were fewer colder days in December and January, and the temperature remained low only for a few days in February,” Dr Shahi said.

He further explained the phenomenon, stating, “Even within the seasons, the duration of specific weather patterns shows significant fluctuations. The even distribution of rainfall, heat, or cold during their respective seasons is undergoing rapid changes, with increased intensity disrupting their regular seasonal frequency.”

Using the example of rainfall, he illustrated that there can be occurrences of exceptionally heavy precipitation on certain days, alongside stretches of consecutive rainless days. Nevertheless, when calculating the overall rainfall at the end of the season, it falls within the expected range for that particular season. Dr. Shahi concluded, “So, as the season comes to a close, we observe a normal volume of rain with a reduced number of rainy days.”

Heavy precipitation also leads to flooding and crop damage besides loss of soil fertility. The recurring urban floods in cities like Bengaluru, Mumbai, Hyderabad, and other metros have been attributed to unprecedented heavy rainfall.

According to experts, climate change has been linked to various extreme events in India, including the increase in heat waves, intensified cyclones, and reduction in diurnal temperature fluctuations, all of which have negative effects on human health.

India experienced extreme weather events on 314 out of 365 days in 2022, according to a report by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down to Earth. These events resulted in unfortunate loss of 3,026 lives, impacted 1.96 million hectares of crop area and destroyed 423,249 houses.

In the first 59 days of this year, the country experienced extreme weather events on 28 days, according to the CSE’s weather disaster database. These events claimed eight lives and affected 0.39 million hectares (ha) of crop area.

“There are reports of increased incidence, intensity, and length of heat waves in India due to climate change. Even a spatio-temporal (space and time) shift in the heat wave influenced region is seen from the eastern part of Gangetic plain towards north-west, central, and south-central regions of India,” explains Tirthankar Banerjee, assistant professor at the Institute of Environment & Sustainable Development at Banaras Hindu University (BHU).

According to the United Nations, the world is currently experiencing a faster rate of warming than any other recorded period in history. This sustained increase in temperatures is causing alterations in weather patterns and disrupting the longstanding balance of nature.

Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas, play a predominant role in global climate change, responsible for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.

“Alongside the unprecedented pace of industrialisation, cutting of forests and changes in lifestyle are also influencing weather patterns,” said Shahi. “In the past, air-conditioners were unheard of in villages, but that is no longer the case.”

These climatic changes are taking place at such a rapid pace that even scientists did not foresee what would come next.

“Climate science is a highly uncertain subject as a number of variables regulate the climate of a region. The science behind the interactions between these variables and how they collectively influence the overall climate is extremely complex,” explained Banerjee.

Illustrating this complexity, he stated, “To classify it as climate change rather than climate variability, a sufficiently large dataset of required duration (say 30 years) is necessary.”

However, with the gradual progress in scientific knowledge in climate change science and continuous improvements in sensing technology, especially in satellite-based measurements and climate models, scientists are developing a better understanding of the complex climatic interactions.

“As researchers gain access to improved climate datasets, encompassing both observations and modelling studies, it has become apparent how the climate is changing over a region,” Banerjee said.

The government and scientific community are actively working to mitigate and alleviate the impact of climate change. The government is actively promoting crop diversification as a means to reduce the risk of complete crop failure. Furthermore, climate-smart crops such as millets are being promoted to combat environmental stress and ensure the resilience of agroecosystems.

A new and improved variety of wheat is currently being developed as the crop is one of the worst affected by climate change. “The months of February and March are critical for wheat cultivation as the size of the grains depends on temperature and moisture. Higher than normal temperatures shrink the size of wheat, impacting both the quantity and quality of the produce,” explains Shahi whose areas of specialisation include soil fertility, micronutrient, and soil pollution.

Despite the significant increases in climate action at both the multilateral and individual country levels, experts believe there might be something that is being overlooked.

“Yes, the missing part is the application at the grass root level… The need of the hour is to induce changes in our daily lifestyle, accompanied by global treaty and policy decisions. In most scenarios, we have suitable technological solutions and scientific ideas to combat climate change. However, what is needed is the adoption of changes in our daily lives,” Banerjee explained.

He further said climate action should now be taken by individuals in society, embracing environmentally friendly practices and sustainable lifestyles, which can alter the pace of climate change.