Yogi Aditya Nath, Akhilesh Yadav, Lok Sabha Polls 2024, Lok Sabha Election 2024, Lok Sabha Election 2024 Result | Voting like 2019 in the 5th phase in UP, who will benefit: Seats of 2 Union Ministers stuck; Expert said – BJP will lose 3-4 seats – Lucknow News

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Experts say – even though the voting percentage is the same as 2019, BJP seems to be suffering a loss. In the 2019 elections, BJP had won 13 out of 14 seats. This time there seems to be a reduction of 3-4 seats. Among these, the seats of 2 Union Ministers are in the fight.

In 2009, 45.92% voting took place on these 14 seats. Voting increased by 10.71% to 56.63% in 2014. Then there was Modi wave. There was an increase of 2.05% in the 2019 election and voting reached 58.68%.

In 2009, BJP had won only 1 seat. SP got 6 seats, BSP 1 and Congress 6 seats. In 2014, voting on these 14 seats increased by 10.71% compared to 2009. Then BJP won 12 out of 14 seats. Congress was successful in winning Rae Bareli and Amethi seats. One thing that emerged from this was that BJP got a big benefit due to increase in voting percentage.

The situation was similar in the 2019 elections also. Then there was an increase of 2.05% in voting. BJP benefited the most in this election also. Amethi managed to win 1 more seat compared to 2014. Captured 13 seats in 2019. SP and BSP had contested together in this election.

In UP, 61.11% voting took place on 8 seats in the first phase, which was 8% less than in 2019. In the second phase, 9% less voting took place on 8 seats i.e. 55.19%. In the third phase, 57.34% voting took place, which was about 3.92% less. Voting in the fourth phase was 58.09%. There was 0.89% less voting in the fifth phase. Total votes cast were 57.79%. Experts are calling this beneficial for the INDI alliance.

Understand the mathematics of voting in 3 elections on 14 seats in the fifth phase…

Lowest voting in Lucknow in 3 elections, expert said – BJP has no problem
The effect of 46.6°C temperature in Lucknow was also visible on voting. Only 41% voting took place till 3 pm. Voting recovered in the last 2 hours. Till 6 pm, 52.3% voting took place, which was the lowest in 3 elections. However, no major change has been seen in Lucknow due to variation in voting. In 2009, when there was only 35.56% voting, even then BJP had won.

In 2014, there was 53.02% voting, in 2019, there was 54.72% voting and Rajnath Singh kept winning the elections for the second time. SP placed its bet on old veteran Ravidas Mehrotra. According to experts, there is not much fight for BJP in Lucknow.

2% less voting in Rae Bareli, yet Congress strong
In Congress stronghold Rae Bareli, 57.85% voting took place till 6 pm. Which was 1.65% less as compared to 2019. Rae Bareli is also included in those seats of UP, where increasing or decreasing voting percentage has not affected the results.

Voting was 48.33% in 2009 and 51.73% in 2014, in both the elections Sonia Gandhi became MP. If Sonia does not contest elections in 2024, Rahul Gandhi is the Congress candidate. BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh is in the election field in front of him. Experts say- This trend is showing that Rae Bareli election is easy for Congress.

54.50% voting in Amethi, less people came out of their homes
54.50% voting took place in Amethi, which is an increase of 0.42% compared to 2019. In the 2019 elections, BJP’s Smriti Irani had registered a big victory by winning the election with 54.08% voting. He is in the election field this time too. KL Sharma of Congress is contesting against him. Voting was almost the same as in the last elections. That’s why experts are predicting a close contest.

Earlier in 2009, Congress had won with 45.16% voting. Voting increased by 7.23% in 2014, 52.39% people voted. Even then Rahul Gandhi of Congress had won. In Amethi, Congress faces the challenge of regaining its lost seat.

People came out of their homes in Kaiserganj, benefit to BJP
Because of Brij Bhushan, Kaiserganj remained a hot seat. Everyone’s eyes are on the election of his son Karan Bhushan. There has been 1% more voting compared to 2019. Which is the right sign for power. In 2014, 55.11% voting took place here. In 2019, voter turnout was 54.39%. Brij Bhushan had won both the elections.

This time the voting was equal to the 2014 elections. According to experts, the voting trend is in favor of BJP.

Same voting as in Mohanlalganj 2019, but fight tough on BJP seat. Despite the scorching heat, 62.53% voting took place in Mohanlalganj. This is equal to 62.79% voting in 2019. Experts believe that even though the voting trend is similar to the last election, here BJP is getting a tough fight from SP’s RK Chaudhary. The seat of Union Minister of State Kaushal Kishore is stuck. When the final result comes, the margin of victory or defeat is going to be less. In 2009 when 46.27% voting took place. Then Sushila Saroj of SP had become MP.

BJP trying for hat-trick in Jalaun, but SP is giving competition. BJP wants to win the election from Jalaun seat for the third time. But records say that whenever the voting was high, he became a BJP MP. But this time there has been 2.5% less voting. Approximately 58.78% voting took place in 2014 and 2019. Whereas in 2009 there was 47.33% voting. Then Ghanshyam Anuragi of SP had won the election. Due to low voting, SP’s Narayan Das Ahirwar is said to be in contention in Jalaun.

Whenever there is more voting in Jhansi, BJP wins.
Jhansi is one of those seats in the 5th phase where good voting took place. Till 6 pm, 63.57% voting took place. In 2019, there was 67.68% voting, this time there was 4.11% less voting. But in the fifth phase, after Barabanki, the highest number of votes were cast in Jhansi.

According to the Election Commission, 100% voting took place in 3 villages here. In 2014, 68.37% votes were cast, Sadhvi Uma Bharti became MP. This is considered a safe seat of BJP. Despite low voting, experts believe that BJP will not suffer much loss here. The margin of victory or defeat may be more or less.

People reached the booths in Hamirpur in the afternoon, yet voting was 1.96% less than 2019.
Only 28.24% voting took place in Hamirpur till 11 pm. But after 3 pm the voting rate increased. Queues started appearing outside the booths. This resulted in 60.36% voting taking place till 6 pm. However, it was 1.96% less as compared to 2019. Then there was 62.32% voting. BSP’s Vijay Bhadauria became MP after getting 46.68% voting in the 2009 elections. After this, this seat has been in the possession of BJP in 2 elections.

Less voting in Banda than 2019, still no loss to BJP
Despite the heat, 40% voting was done in Banda by 1 pm. After this only 19% votes were cast. Till 6 pm, 59.46% voting was done. It was 1.34% less than 2019. However, according to records, in 2014, when 53.61% voting took place, BJP had won. Earlier in 2009, SP’s RK Singh Patel had won with only 44.67% voting. Therefore, BJP MP may repeat here.

Voting like 2019 in Fatehpur, BJP trying for hat-trick here
In Fatehpur, 28% voting could take place till 11 am. After this people came out of their homes. Till 6 pm, 56.90% voting was possible. Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti is winning the last 2 elections here. He is contesting elections for the third time on BJP ticket. Experts say that even though the voting trend is the same as 2019, the margin of victory or defeat may be less. In 2009, 45.19% voting took place, when SP’s Rakesh Sachan had won.

In Kaushambi, less people came out of their homes, voting decreased by 2%
Kaushambi had the lowest voting percentage of 10.49% till 9 am. After this, people came out of their homes by 1 o’clock. Still only 36% voting could take place. But in the last 3 hours, 52.60% voting was done. Here in 2009, SP’s Shailendra Kumar won with 39.63% voting.

Voting percentage increased by 12.74% in 2019. Then became a BJP MP. Voting again increased by 2.19% in 2019, once again BJP won. This time voting has decreased by 1.96%. Experts say- BJP may have to fight here.

Highest voting in Barabanki, benefit to BJP
In the 5th phase, maximum 66.89% people reached the polling stations. Past records say that BJP benefits from increase in voting. In such a situation, the election is looking difficult for Tanuj Punia of Congress. Tanuj’s father PL Punia won the election in 2009 with 52% voting.

After this, in 2014, voting increased by 9.76% and BJP’s Priyanka Singh Rawat won the election. The same trend continued in 2019. This time BJP’s Upendra Rawat won the election. Due to record voting in 2024, BJP’s seat is said to be safe.

Voting is less in Faizabad also, but BJP is considered safe
Even in Faizabad, fewer people came out of their homes to vote. Till 11 pm, 29% voting took place. There was silence at the booths due to the strong sunlight. But by 6 pm the voting reached 58.96%. Faizabad recorded 58.82% voting in 2014, while 59.69% voting took place in 2019. BJP won both the elections. Earlier in 2009, Congress’s Nirmal Khatri had won with 50.5% voting. Experts believe that the margin of victory or defeat may be less here, but Faizabad is a safe seat for BJP.

Lowest voting in Gonda, but INDIA alliance does not benefit
Kirti Vardhan is contesting from BJP in Gonda. In the 2024 elections, the lowest voting in the 5th phase was in Gonda at around 51.45%. It was about 0.75% less as compared to 2019. But the voting trend says that despite less voting, Kirti Vardhan is not getting dented. In 2014 also, 51.08% voting took place, when Kirti Vardhan became BJP MP. After this, 52.20% voting took place in 2019. Kirtivardhan retained the victory. According to experts, BJP will have less dent in Gonda.

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