Exclusive: Who Will Win 2024 Polls? Prashant Kishor’s “Boring” Prediction

There is neither widespread anger against the incumbent BJP nor a clamour for a challenger, political strategist Prashant Kishor told NDTV today, predicting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to lead the BJP to another victory in the ongoing Lok Sabha election. Mr Kishor, who now leads Jan Suraaj, said the BJP’s tally in this election may hover around its 2019 score of 303 or better than it.

When NDTV’s editor-in-chief Sanjay Pugalia asked what he thinks will be the June 4 result, Mr Kishor said, “The future will show what the June 4 result will be. Journalists, psephologists and experts have their own opinions. As far as I am concerned, I would say consistency can sometimes be boring. For the past five months, I have been saying that no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better.” 

“We should look at the fundamentals. If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger,” he said.

The other fundamental issue, Mr Kishor said, is “a clamour for a challenger”. “This is when people feel that if this person comes, our situation would improve. We have not heard anything like things will be better if Rahul Gandhi comes. His supporters may say that, but I am talking about a more widespread level. There is an absence of widespread anger against the incumbent or a clamour for somebody who is a challenger. So I don’t think there would be a huge change in numbers,” he said.

The political strategist said North and West India account for about 325 Lok Sabha seats, and this belt has been the BJP’s stronghold since 2014. “In the East and South, which account for 225-odd seats, the BJP has not performed very well over the past decade. Out of these 225 seats, the BJP currently holds less than 50. Now, if BJP has to lose, you need to see if they have suffered any material damage in the North and West. My assessment is that it has not. But in the East and South, its vote share and seats are likely to increase,” he said.

“So, status quo or a status quo with a positive bias in favour of incumbent is expected. I see little chance of BJP’s score going down.”

On the BJP’s 370 seats target, Mr Kishor said, “If the BJP wins 275 seats, its leaders are not going to say that we will not form the government because we had claimed we will win 370. So we need to see whether they are getting 272, the majority mark. Politics and chatter will continue. Those doing commentary will continue to do so. But I don’t see any risk, and NDA seems to be returning to power.”

Mr Kishor said the BJP had managed to “shift the goalpost” through its propaganda, including the ‘400 paar’ slogan. “Modiji and BJP shifted the goalpost from 272 to 370. So the entire discussion now is on whether BJP is getting 370. No one is talking about 272. We must give credit to BJP and Modiji for changing the nucleus of the discussion and they have gained from it. Nobody is saying that Modiji is losing. Everyone is saying they are not getting 370. But even if they 320, they will still form the government,” he said.