Know who will become the champion through the trend analysis of IPL final?: A score of 200+ means guaranteed victory; The team that wins Qualifier-1 has been winning for the last 6 seasons

The finalists of IPL-2024 have been decided. The final match will be played between Kolkata Knight Riders and Sunrisers Hyderabad in Chennai today from 7:30 pm.

Kolkata, ranked number 1 in the points table, has entered the final by winning Qualifier 1, while number 2 Hyderabad has entered the title match by winning Qualifier 2. For the last 6 seasons, the team that wins Qualifier 1 has been winning the title. Trend analysis of last 16 finals…

1. The number-2 team in the points table has won the maximum of 8 trophies
The top-2 teams after the league round have won 13 titles. Out of these, the team finishing at number-1 has won the trophy 5 times and the team at number-2 has won the trophy 8 times. The number-3 team has become champion 2 times. Only once the team winning the eliminator has become champion. In 2016, Hyderabad was at number four and won the eliminator, qualifier-2 and final matches. This season, Kolkata Knight Riders finished the league round at number-1 and Sunrisers Hyderabad at number-2.

2. Toss

I. The team that won the toss won 62.5% of the finals
Generally, the toss is important in any match, but its importance increases in the finals. Out of the last 16 finals, 10 finals have been won by the teams that won the toss, while 6 teams have become champions after losing the toss.

Going by the past trends, the toss will be of great importance in Chepauk, the team which wins the toss has a 62.5% chance of winning while the team losing the toss has a 37.5% chance of winning.

II. More than half of the finals were won by the chasing team
So far in the finals, the decision to bowl after winning the toss has been the mantra of victory, that is, out of 16 finals, 9 have been won by the team that won the toss and bowled first, while 7 finals have been won by the team batting first. The successful defense in 16 finals has been 56.25%, while in 43.75% of the matches, the chasing team has become the champion.

The team winning the toss here would prefer to bowl first as in the last 16 finals, 56.25% scores have been defended while only 43.75% scores have been chased.

3. A score of more than 200 has not been chased yet
In the last 16 years, a score of 200+ has not been chased in the IPL final, which means a score of 200+ is a guarantee of victory. From 2008 to 2023, a score of 200+ has been made 4 times in the final, but the chasing team has not been able to chase a score of more than 200 so far.

In the 2023 final, Gujarat had scored 214 runs, but due to rain, Chennai was given a revised target of 171 runs in 15 overs, which Chennai achieved in 15 overs for 5 wickets. If the team batting first manages to score more than 200, then the chances of the respective team winning will be 100%.

4. The last 6 finals were won by the winner of Qualifier-1
For the last 6 seasons, the team that wins Qualifier-1 has become the champion. Since the playoff system started in 2011, a total of 13 finals have been played, out of which 10 were won by the team that won Qualifier-1, while in 3, the winner of Qualifier-2 became the champion, including Sunrisers Hyderabad, which won the Eliminator in 2016.

According to the previous trend, Kolkata’s chances of winning are 76.92% and losing chances are 23.07%, while Hyderabad’s figures are just the opposite, because the team that won Qualifier-2 has become champion only 3 times.

5. Most 9 titles were won at neutral venues
Out of the last 16, 13 finals have been played on Indian pitches, while 3 title matches were played abroad. Out of the finals played so far, 9 finals have been won at neutral venues. The host team won 2, while the visiting team became the champion in 5. Chepauk Stadium is a neutral venue for both the teams.