The Conviction of Donald J. Trump

The criminal justice system finally caught up to Donald Trump.

He has spent decades on the edge of legal trouble. First, he was a New York businessman whose company violated discrimination laws, failed to repay debts and flirted with bankruptcy. Then, he was a president who impeded an investigation of his 2016 campaign, tried to overturn the result of his re-election defeat and refused to return classified documents he took from the White House.

Throughout, his central strategy was the same: delay. Try to push off legal problems for as long as possible and hope that a solution somehow presented itself. It usually worked, too. And it seemed to be on the verge of working again this year, with two federal trials and one state trial in Georgia all unlikely to finish before Election Day.

Yesterday, however, a criminal jury judged Trump for the first time. The verdict was guilty, 34 times, pronounced late in the afternoon in downtown Manhattan. The prosecutors argued that Trump had falsified business records to hide a sexual affair from voters and corrupt the 2016 election. After two days of deliberation, the 12 jurors agreed. Trump has become the first former president of the United States to be a convicted felon.

Yes, the caveats are important. He will appeal, and some legal experts think he has a case, given the novel combination of accusations that the prosecutors made. It is unclear when, or even if, he will go to prison. Most important, nobody knows whether it will help or hurt his presidential campaign.

On the most basic level, however, Trump experienced a personal defeat yesterday unlike any other.

My colleague Michael Gold, who has been covering Trump, said that as he left the courthouse — after making a combative statement but taking no questions — Trump “looked more somber than I have seen him at any point in the last several months.”

Maggie Haberman, who has been covering Trump for years, notes that Trump and his aides frequently respond to bad news with spin about what actually happened. “By following this playbook, Trump’s team can usually create enough confusion to leave people questioning outcomes,” Maggie wrote. “Not so with a jury verdict.”

In the rest of today’s newsletter, we’ll walk you through three key questions, round up the rest of The Times’s coverage and give you a selection of outside commentary.

Three questions

1. Could Trump go to prison?

Yes, but it’s not clear if he will. The judge, Juan Merchan, scheduled sentencing for July 11. Until then, Trump remains free.

Each of the 34 counts on which Trump was convicted carries a sentence of up to four years. Most legal observers believe that a sentence of more than four years — in which Trump would serve consecutive terms, rather than concurrent terms — is unlikely. Merchan could also decide to sentence Trump to probation and no prison time. Before sentencing, Trump will sit with a psychologist or a social worker and have a chance to explain why he deserves a light punishment.

Even if Merchan sentences Trump to prison time, it may not begin immediately. Merchan could instead allow Trump to remain free while courts heard his appeal. The appeals could take months or years, well beyond Election Day, and could rise to the Supreme Court.

2. Can Trump still be president?

Yes. The Constitution does not bar him from holding office because of this felony. He could run for president from prison. If he was elected from prison, he could not pardon himself because the conviction is on state charges rather than federal charges. But he could sue for his release, arguing that his imprisonment prevented him from fulfilling his constitutional duties as president.

Read more about what could happen next.

3. How will his conviction affect the campaign?

Nobody knows. Political prognostication after unprecedented news is a recipe for regret. (The day after Richard Nixon resigned, a front-page story in this very newspaper said the resignation immediately made Gerald Ford the favorite to win the 1976 election; he lost.)

But we understand that readers are hungry for analysis of this question because it may be the most important one. And we recommend this article by Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.

Nate points out that Trump’s current polling lead relies on voters who have traditionally supported Democrats, including younger and nonwhite voters. Some of them have previously told pollsters that a conviction would make them less comfortable with supporting Trump. Nate also emphasizes — and this will sound familiar — that nobody yet knows what will happen.

• Bruhat Soma, 12, from Tampa, Fla., won the Scripps National Spelling Bee. He prevailed in a rare spell-off, blazing through 29 difficult words in 90 seconds.

• The U.S. sued Hyundai and two other companies, accusing them of employing a 13-year-old in a factory in Alabama.

• The American economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter, slower than initially estimated, as consumers spent less.

• PTSD has surged among college students, climbing during the pandemic, researchers found.

• A man in Idaho was found guilty of murder in three killings. They were known as the “doomsday” killings because of his religious beliefs.

Opinions

Sports leagues’ entanglement with gambling puts athletes under untenable pressure, Leigh Steinberg writes.

Here’s a column by Paul Krugman on the importance of the 2024 election.

MORNING READS

Hobbies: The ancient art of calligraphy is experiencing a revival.

Deep sea: A ghoulish fish has weird sex — extremely weird sex.

Hollywood: Travis Kelce has big career plans, The Cut reports. “I’m looking for movie deals,” he said.

Totonno’s: A beloved 100-year-old pizzeria on Coney Island survived a fire and a pandemic. Its future is now in question.

Lives Lived: The Hollywood producer Albert Ruddy helped create the sitcom “Hogan’s Heroes” and the Oscar-winning movies “The Godfather” and “Million Dollar Baby.” He died at 94.

SPORTS

N.B.A.: Luka Doncic scored 20 points in the first quarter of Dallas’ blowout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dallas is going to the N.B.A. Finals.

N.H.L.: The Florida Panthers are one win away from their second straight Stanley Cup Final appearance after beating the New York Rangers.

College football: Shilo Sanders, the son of the Colorado coach Deion Sanders, filed for bankruptcy after a Texas court ordered him to pay $12 million in damages over an alleged assault.

ARTS AND IDEAS

The Banksy Museum, which opened this month in New York City, does not own or display any actual works by the pseudonymous street artist. Rather, Max Lakin writes in The Times, it features 167 “decent-enough reproductions,” with life-size paintings on panels treated to look like exterior walls. “There is something perverse in paying to experience an ersatz street to look at artificial graffiti, as if the real version wasn’t available outside for free,” Max writes.

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