Sheikh Hasina’s Crisis and the Great Game in Bangladesh – News18

Bangladesh is on the boil. Thousands of protesters are on the streets, thousands have been injured and around 180 of them have been killed. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s position is increasingly unstable. The situation is tense. And the world is watching closely. Because what happens here could destabilise the region, giving way to yet another security threat at India’s doorstep.

A major power play is underway in Bangladesh— with India, China and the US vying for hard power. This country is no lightweight. An unstable Bangladesh would be detrimental to the security calculus of the subcontinent. With a dense population of over 171 million people, sharing its land border almost entirely with India, it is of particular interest to India. But with a GDP of nearly half a trillion dollars and the Bay of Bengal link with the Indian Ocean, Bangladesh is also a prominent player in the Indo-Pacific. This is why a ‘great game’ is unfolding in the country.

Quota Row

The roots of the current protests shaking Bangladesh can be traced back to its liberation from Pakistan in 1971. Those who fought for freedom were given a gift— a very generous one at that. 30 per cent of all government jobs were set aside for the freedom fighters and their families. It is said that this provision helped build Bangladesh into a relatively moderate, democratic society, unlike its divorced ex – Pakistan – where religious extremism and military high-handedness rear their ugly heads. This was started by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, known as the father of Bangladesh and more endearingly as Bangabandhu— or “friend of Bengal”. Hasina is emotionally attached to the legacy of her father. However, beyond sentiment, this quota system has been instrumental in ensuring the loyalty of her supporters, helping her navigate the political challenges posed by her opponents.

It has been more than five decades since this quota was designed—most of the freedom fighters have passed leaving their children and grandchildren behind. These kin of designated freedom fighters are a thin minority, sitting over a third of all government jobs. What’s more, the overall job quota was set at 56 per cent— with 30 per cent for freedom fighters, 10 per cent for women, 10 per cent for underdeveloped regions, 5 per cent for indigenous tribes and 1 per cent for the disabled. This has left fewer jobs for the rest, at a time when the youth unemployment rate is staggeringly high, almost as high as 16 per cent by some estimates. Meanwhile, inflation remains as high as 10 per cent.

So, Bangladesh’s economy is struggling, there is raging inequality, the national debt is soaring, and government jobs — often seen as the most stable form of employment with life-long benefits— stand at only 3.1 per cent of the total population, making the Bangladeshi public sector relatively small for a population its size. Every year, about 4,000 government positions open up, and more than 300,000 students compete for them.

In 2018, this quota was vehemently protested against. Just as we see today, Bangladesh came to the brink six years ago over the same matter. Hasina’s support for the provision fuelled further anti-incumbency and it was quickly co-opted by the Opposition. Under pressure, Hasina acted with a sweeping executive order. She removed all reservations in civil services — removing not just the 30 per cent quota but also those for women and other communities. This came as a shock for the students, who wanted only the freedom fighter quota to go.

Now in 2024, the Bangladesh High Court scrapped that executive order, restoring all the reservations. Fearing that the freedom fighter quota is back at Hasina’s behest, the students hit the streets. Amid this unrest, the country’s Supreme Court has ordered that the freedom fighter quota should remain, but stand at only 5 per cent, with 93 per cent of the jobs to be allocated on merit. But this has not calmed those already on the streets and they have their eyes set on Hasina’s throne.

Trouble for Hasina

Public anger has been growing against the government of Sheikh Hasina and her party, the Awami League. Earlier this month, she aggravated the situation by calling the protesters ‘Razakars’. Defending the quota, she said, “If the grandchildren of freedom fighters do not receive (quota) benefits, who would get it? The grandchildren of Razakars?”

The Razakars were a paramilitary force who were backed by Pakistan during the 1971 war and carried out genocidal atrocities against Bengalis across the country. This retort only deepened the divide.

Hasina has continuously been in power for the last 15 years, since 2009. She won the recent elections amid a boycott by the Opposition, which wanted elections to be conducted under a caretaker government. Her main opponents, the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, have weaponised religious extremism. They hold a soft side for Pakistan in stark contrast with Hasina’s party— still driven by the freedom fighter spirit. But allegations of corruption do not help, and neither do the visuals capturing the government’s high-handedness. And to a great extent, these protests have been hijacked by Hasina’s bitter rivals. The Opposition has been cashing in on this public sentiment, and their agenda is to drive home the narrative that Hasina’s re-election may not be as legitimate as she wants the world to believe. And their mission to unseat her remains as active as ever.

Great Game: India, China, USA

A great power play between India, China and the US is underway and Hasina is busy managing each force while attempting to keep her house in order. It’s a plate full of worries. The situation spells trouble not just for Hasina, but also for the larger neighbourhood, particularly India.

Unlike her radical opponents sympathetic towards Pakistan, Hasina is a friend of India and is New Delhi’s best bet at this moment. Trade ties between the two nations have unlocked new heights, collaborating in the fields of energy, connectivity and access to ports. Recently, Hasina highlighted that her country wanted India to carry out a development project in the Teesta River, not China.

Hasina is mindful of India’s security concerns and opposes Pakistani influence in her country tooth and nail. This bond goes way back— India backed the freedom fighters including the Mukti Bahini in 1971, without which Bangladesh’s formation would not have been possible. If the current government falls to an extremist, pro-Pakistan political group, it would severely disrupt India’s security framework, particularly along its highly porous eastern borders. This poses a significant threat to India’s connection with its Northeastern region and Southeast Asia. China and Pakistan, being close allies, would eagerly seize the strategic advantages this scenario presents. India’s risk of a two-front war would become a three-front one.

There is too much at stake here, but alas, India is also aware that its ‘all eggs in one basket’ situation is dangerously hinged upon Hasina being in power, and the decline in her popularity is translating into deeper anti-India sentiment, fanned by the radicals.

It also does not help that the US is taking a suspiciously keen interest in Bangladesh. It has been increasingly vocal on alleged political violence, calling for free and fair elections repeatedly. It has placed sanctions on leaders and the country’s Rapid Action Battalion. In 2022, the White House kept Bangladesh out of the Democracy Summit, despite having Pakistan in the guest list. Many see it as foreign interference. The US has always been seen with mistrust as it was never in favour of the creation of a free Bangladesh. Now, it is said that the US is unhappy with Bangladesh’s tilt towards Beijing.

Hasina was quick to accuse the US of attempting a regime change. This year, she got more candid. Hasina claimed that had she allowed a certain country to build an airbase in Bangladesh, she would have had no problem. She did not name the country but she did say that the offer came from a white man. She went on to say, “It may appear that it is aimed at only one country, but it is not. I know where else they intend to go.” What’s even more interesting is she openly said that there is a conspiracy to break parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh and build a “Christian nation with a base in the Bay of Bengal”. Now that’s some great game if even minutely outside the realm of conspiracies and even if it is some covert plan set to unfold over the next hundred years. One might also suspect that the alleged proponent of such fantasies would not limit their ambitions to just those two nations.

But her problems do not end here. Hasina has been playing a balancing game between India and China but this strategy is being tested at this time of crisis. Just this month, Hasina returned from China after a meeting with Xi Jinping, a day before her tour was scheduled to end. Reports say that Hasina felt snubbed by the Chinese, with no one but Xi meeting her and offering nothing but about a $130 million when she was anticipating $5 billion. There’s a message in that. Hasina is cornered and China expects greater loyalty. India has already extended lines of credit worth $8 billion to Bangladesh to wean it away from China’s debt. Both New Delhi and Beijing have been funding the port of Mongla in Bangladesh, the second largest in the country.

Hasina treats India as a friend, China as a business partner and the US as a hostile power aiming to destabilise her rule. But while the US continues to criticise her government, India has its hopes pinned on her and China wants more. Against this backdrop, the frequent protests and internal turmoil paint a grim picture. Sheikh Hasina is under pressure from all sides and the clock is ticking on her rule.