Opinion | Beyond Trump Vs Harris: The Unseen Hand Shaping US-India Policy – News18
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Whoever becomes President will ultimately be guided by the overall US national interests. In this context, America’s deep state will play an important role
The US presidential election on November 5 could have important implications for India in view of the escalating geopolitical tensions. (Photo: AFP)
The US presidential election on November 5 could have important implications for India in view of the escalating geopolitical tensions. Many people in India, as well as in the Indian-American community in the United States, are asking this question: who will be better for India—Trump or Harris? Broadly speaking, Kamala Harris is likely to maintain the Biden administration’s multilateral, alliance-driven approach, while Donald Trump’s policies could see a resurgence of aggressive trade tactics, including potential tariffs and stricter immigration policies. In my view, whoever becomes President will ultimately be guided by the overall US national interests. In this context, America’s deep state will play an important role.
The deep state in the United States is a clandestine network which also includes high-level financial and industrial entities and leaders, including the military-industrial complex. This deep state currently favours a good relationship with India as it stands to gain a lot from it. Importantly, India ranks as the world’s biggest arms importing nation, and the US deep state wants to increase its share of India’s defence imports.
India now buys a wide range of defence weaponry from the United States, including C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, MH-60 Romeo helicopters, and P8I Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft, with many more deals in the pipeline.
Bilateral trade has grown rapidly since 2000, amounting to $128.78 billion in 2023. India’s role in the Quad has fostered a shared purpose for Washington and New Delhi, both of which hold concerns about China. Today, US-India cooperation spans defence, global health, sustainable development, climate, and technology, among other areas. Neither Trump nor Harris will lose sight of this fact.
The US deep state is not inherently pro-India; rather, it seeks to maximise its share in the Indian market, particularly in the defence sector. The US deep state is acutely aware that several of India’s key neighbours are hostile and far from friendly. If India had amicable neighbours, would it need state-of-the-art weaponry? The more hostile the geopolitical environment, the greater the need for such arms.
Despite recent disengagement in Eastern Ladakh, China’s assertiveness in India’s maritime neighbourhood and the broader Indian Ocean Region cannot be ignored. China’s maritime policies and its growing influence in South Asia pose increasingly serious challenges to India’s regional interests. Through its ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, China has made significant investments in ports such as Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), effectively encircling India.
A hostile government across our eastern border has further complicated India’s security challenges. The new government in Bangladesh appears more aligned with China and Pakistan, potentially taking steps that could unfavourably impact our security environment. Bangladesh’s China-backed naval dock at Cox’s Bazar has already intensified the power dynamics in our neighbourhood. India previously stated it wasn’t “overly concerned” by this development, given its strong security and defence ties with Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina; however, this sentiment is shifting with the new regime in Bangladesh.
The visit of a Chinese naval fleet to Chittagong port on October 12, for the first time in four years, signals rising maritime challenges for India in the Bay of Bengal. On this occasion, the Chinese Embassy in Bangladesh issued a statement expressing that “China is looking forward to working closely with Bangladesh to cement our traditional friendship, deepen friendly exchanges, and foster mutually beneficial cooperation across various areas, while promoting high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.”
China’s navy now appears likely to gain access to the new naval facility it helped establish in Cox’s Bazar, intended to service its warships and submarines. This development is a major cause of concern for India, as the base is strategically positioned at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal. With China’s submarines stationed so close to the Indian Navy’s Andaman and Nicobar Command, the security implications are significant. Containing China remains a top priority among India’s defence challenges, and we need state-of-the-art weaponry for that purpose. India’s complicated security environment may just suit America’s deep state, and this aspect will be important in the shaping of the new US administration’s policy towards India.
The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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