Straight Talk | Bangladesh Risks Becoming ‘East Pakistan’ Again By Turning Its Back On India – News18

Last Updated:December 11, 2024, 15:59 IST

Bangladesh distancing itself from India and scrutinising deals would have made a lot more sense had the country not been simultaneously cosying up to Pakistan

A lot has happened since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from Bangladesh. New Delhi’s ties with Dhaka have tanked, Hindus and other minorities have come under attack across Bangladesh, and Dhaka’s bonhomie with Pakistan has picked up pace. All this, while Bangladesh continues to decouple from India at the behest of radical Islamists who have seized control of the country’s political and strategic apparatus. Despite growing differences, India has chosen to give diplomacy a chance. To that effect, India’s Foreign Secretary flew down to Dhaka this week.

While in Bangladesh, Vikram Misri raised concerns over the attacks on minorities and conveyed India’s fears regarding their safety. Bangladesh, to its credit, was quick to course-correct and admitted that about 88 incidents of communal violence had taken place after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. While this may not present the full and accurate scale of the crisis that has engulfed Hindus in Bangladesh, it is indeed an improvement from Dhaka’s earlier stance – which seemed almost dismissive of India’s concerns.

BANGLADESH: BEING REMADE IN THE IMAGE OF ‘EAST PAKISTAN’?

While it is true that India is giving diplomacy a fair chance to sort out its differences with Bangladesh, there are a variety of strategic concerns coming to the fore. For starters, there are intelligence inputs indicating an increase in terrorist activity along the border areas after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government. A plot involving the terrorist organisation Harkat-ul-Jihad has also been uncovered. Reportedly, radical Islamists and terrorists who escaped Bangladeshi jails have formed gangs and are preparing to carry out terrorist acts on the Indo-Bangladesh border.

India’s intelligence apparatus has other concerns as well. Indian agencies suspect that Bangladesh-based terror group Ansar Bangla Team (ABT) – an Al Qaeda affiliate – will be trying to set up bases both in Kolkata and Assam to create a major security headache in several Indian states.

There’s more. Terrorists in Bangladesh are reportedly planning to use weapons procured from Pakistan in the 1970s to carry out fresh attacks on the border with India. Add to that, Bangladesh has suddenly deployed Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones along the border with India. While Dhaka claims that the drones have been deployed for defensive purposes alone, the Bayraktar TB2s are hardly defensive weapons. These drones can destroy modern tanks with laser-guided missiles, carry a maximum payload of 150kg, and penetrate deep into enemy territory. The question is, does Bangladesh view India as an ‘enemy’ which must be kept at bay with the help of lethal attack drones?

Read More: Straight Talk | Third Front Rising: India Needs a ‘Plan B’ to Deal with Bangladesh Post Sheikh Hasina

In just a few months, ties between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated in a manner not many thought was possible. Maintaining close relations with Bangladesh is a priority for India, given how any turbulence can disturb New Delhi’s strategic calculations in the region and sour the security situation in the Northeast. Speaking of the Northeast, Bangladesh has decided it is not inclined to partner with India for the upliftment and development of the Northeast.

The plan was to make Bangladesh a transit point for internet supply to Northeastern states. India is currently using its domestic fibre optic network to provide internet to these seven states. However, the distance between Chennai and the Northeast, which is around 5,500 kilometres, leads to degradation in internet speed. To bypass this route, India and Bangladesh were to team up and use the Akhaura border to fetch bandwidth from Singapore and supply internet to Northeastern states. However, the Muhammad Yunus-led government has decided to junk the deal, claiming the arrangement would have made India secure a spot as a dominant internet hub and hurt the possibility of Bangladesh doing so in the future.

HURTING INDIA, HELPING PAKISTAN?

Bangladesh distancing itself from India and scrutinising deals would have made a lot more sense had the country not been simultaneously cosying up to Pakistan. While Bangladesh is actively reviewing deals and pulling the plug on some agreements which serve India’s core interests, it is walking the extra mile to enhance ties with Pakistan.

That Bangladesh depends on India for the supply of essential commodities is no secret. In an attempt to deleverage India’s domination of these supply lines, Bangladesh is now looking to import potatoes and onions from Pakistan.

Earlier, in November, Bangladesh welcomed its first Pakistani cargo ship at the Chittagong Port. This was the first-ever direct maritime trade connection between Pakistan and Bangladesh in 53 years since the war of liberation. Previously, containers from Pakistan had to pass through a third country before reaching Bangladesh. Also, all Pakistani goods arriving in Bangladesh, even from third countries, required a mandatory physical inspection on arrival, which resulted in long delays. With the reactivation of dormant shipping lanes between Karachi and Chittagong and Dhaka’s decision to revoke the physical inspection of goods from Pakistan, India fears Islamabad will find it much easier to smuggle arms and narcotics into the Northeast.

Moreover, the visa process between the two nations has become more straightforward over the past few months. In September, Islamabad declared that Bangladeshi citizens could visit Pakistan without paying a visa fee. In return, the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has removed the requirement for Pakistani citizens to get security clearance before applying for a visa.

Bangladesh has also placed a new order for artillery ammunition from Pakistan. The order includes 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 40 tonnes of RDX in wax form for explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles.

Read More: Straight Talk | Bangladesh and Pakistan Are Cosying Up As Dhaka Defies India’s Red Lines

The fact that Bangladesh is trying to cut down on ties with India – while actively engaging Pakistan – is alarming, to say the least. It adds weight to the perception that after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, elements averse to India have risen to a position to not just antagonise New Delhi, but also steer Bangladesh closer to Pakistan.

Given the atrocities Pakistan has committed on what was the erstwhile East Pakistan, it is quite baffling how Bangladesh is comfortable engaging with Islamabad at the expense of New Delhi. Public sentiment in Bangladesh is also turning anti-India, with several videos of retired Bangladeshi soldiers making anti-India statements going viral on social media. The statements range from how Bangladesh could capture Kolkata and Assam “within four days,” to even how the Bangladeshi Army is “better trained” and “battle-ready” to teach India “a lesson”.

Bangladesh’s growing alignment with Pakistan risks undermining its long-term strategic and economic interests. This rapprochement is not just symbolic; it enables Pakistan to exploit Bangladesh’s territory for smuggling arms and narcotics, posing a direct threat to regional security. Economically, Dhaka’s pivot to Pakistan over India is self-defeating. India has been a reliable partner, supplying essential commodities and facilitating infrastructural collaboration. Curtailing these ties in favour of Pakistan—whose economy is floundering—jeopardises Bangladesh’s development trajectory.

By leaning toward Pakistan, Bangladesh risks destabilising its internal security, alienating a reliable partner in India, and undoing decades of progress toward economic and regional integration. At the same time, allowing radical Islamists and anti-India elements to control the narrative domestically could very well turn Bangladesh into a de facto “East Pakistan” again. Far too much blood has been spilled – both Indian and Bangladeshi – for such a tragedy to unfold again. Now is the time for Bangladesh to take a step back and think long and hard about how it wants to play this game. The ball is in Bangladesh’s court. Being aggressive towards India diplomatically, deploying Turkish attack drones on the border, scrapping strategic agreements, all while trying to grow closer to Pakistan, will only force India to secure its interests the hard way.