Finepoint | Doval-Wang Meeting Hints At Yet Another Transformation In India-China Ties – News18

Last Updated:December 19, 2024, 14:13 IST

This meeting between Wang Yi and Ajit Doval isn’t just about resolving border tensions—it’s more about building confidence and setting a roadmap for the future

India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks in Beijing on Wednesday. (X/@EOIBeijing)

In the 1990s, India and China signed crucial agreements to ensure peace at their disputed and undemarcated border. They agreed on controlled overflight to avoid heavy military deployments, including heavy weaponry— all to build confidence and ensure that war never takes place. For the most part, these deals were successful, but the summer of 2020 changed everything. A violent clash in Galwan took many lives on both sides.

China’s violent attempts to alter the status quo were pushed back upon by India, and a high-stakes standoff ensued for the next four years across the LAC. But finally, there seems to be a breakthrough— a consensus on bringing back trust and confidence-building measures. It started from the meeting between PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia in October 2024, and has progressed into a meeting of special representatives Ajit Doval and Wang Yi—the first in five years—to discuss the border issue. And this meeting just took place in Beijing. But unlike the 90s’, the situation today is different. And it might just be a new era in India-China ties as they undergo yet another transformation.

From Kazan to Beijing

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval held talks in Beijing on Wednesday. The agenda at hand was the border, working on the momentum built in the last few months. This was the first meeting between special representatives since 2019. In October, PM Modi and Xi Jinping met in Kazan, Russia on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. They achieved a breakthrough by agreeing on disengagement at two contentious points in Eastern Ladakh– Demchok and the Depsang. This enabled both armies to resume their mandatory border patrolling activities in these areas, something that had been restricted during the standoff. But this was not the end of it. Modi and Xi further directed the special representatives to take the baton and work further on the nitty-gritty of this resolution.

Long and Painstaking Road Ahead

When it comes to the resolution of this standoff, across the 3,488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC), India emphasises a “3D” approach: disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction. Disengagement has been completed in Depsang and Demchok. However, that’s just one part of the puzzle. De-escalation is the next step—this involves troops on both sides moving further back from the border to their original deployment points, far from the LAC. And finally, de-induction, which requires China to withdraw troops from the Aksai Chin area back to their permanent bases in Tibet and Xinjiang.

This will be a long and painstaking effort, the only difference being that the talks previously held by Army commanders will be taken up at the special representatives’ level. This is a welcome development, as it shows the seriousness of both sides in bringing an end to this standoff.

China’s Charm Offensive

For China, it matters that India does not veer further away as it’s only going to get bumpy for Xi with Trump in the White House. China has also realised that India has refused to budge as seen in the last four and a half years.

China has been on a charm offensive towards India, and its messaging has been positive so far. Ahead of the meeting between Wang and Doval, China released a statement saying that it is ready to work with India to implement the common understandings between PM Modi and Xi, to respect each other’s core interests, strengthen mutual trust and to “properly settle differences with sincerity and good faith and bring bilateral relations back to the track of stable and healthy development as soon as possible.”

Trust, respect, sincerity, good faith— China is using all the words that India wants to hear at this juncture. And for obvious reasons, as the stakes are very high. The troop build-up along the LAC, especially since the Galwan clashes in 2020, has created a tense and volatile situation bringing the two nations to the brink of war with more than a lakh troops deployed on both sides. Rebuilding trust now is a herculean task, but both sides are trying to pick up the pieces.

Following the meeting, the Chinese side shared a statement sharing six consensus points. These include an understanding on the resumption of pilgrimage at Kailash Mansarovar and cross-border trade at Nathula. The sides further agreed to work further on the border issue and have a new round of special representatives meetings in India next year. Interestingly, one of the points shared by China revolves around sticking to a 2005 confidence-building agreement, which defines the political guidelines as to how a border solution must be reached considering “historical evidence, national sentiments, practical difficulties and reasonable concerns and sensitivities of both sides, and the actual state of border areas”. However, China seems to have forgotten two other crucial agreements.

A Crucial Point in History

This brings us to an important moment in history. It was only in the late 1970s and 1980s that India and China began to slowly repair their strained ties following the 1962 war.

After years of painstaking negotiations, India and China signed the Border Peace and Tranquillity Agreement in 1993, which would serve as a precursor to two more agreements in 1996 and 2005. Then-Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visited China when the 1993 agreement was signed. It essentially laid out a framework for the two countries to peacefully manage their borders, ensuring that war would never occur. This was also when the term Line of Actual Control (LAC) was introduced.

Then came an agreement on confidence-building measures in 1996, which went further into how heavy weaponry should not be deployed at the border, how military deployments should be limited, and provided details on how to manage military exercises, air intrusions, overflights, and landings by military aircraft near the LAC. Its primary aim was to prevent “dangerous military activities” near the LAC. For the most part, these agreements have been successful in curbing war-like situations between the two nations, though there have been several violations, especially from the Chinese side.

The worst one was in the summer of 2020, in the Galwan Valley, when a deadly clash took place between Chinese and Indian forces. In the next four years of the standoff, there was heavy deployment of military might on both sides. China’s attempts to alter the status quo came at the cost of the sanctity of these crucial agreements. Therefore, restoring the spirit of these agreements is key to sustained disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction.

Factoring in Economic Security

This is a priority for India before economic ties can be normalised albeit with checks and balances. In the aftermath of the Galwan clash, there was an uproar in India against Chinese belligerence. India enforced a boycott of dozens of Chinese apps. It even banned TikTok on national security grounds.

Similarly, it put curbs on Chinese investments and ruled the chances of Huawei’s 5G services ever making a debut in India. But India did not stop here, doubling down on the Make in India push, calling for an ‘aatmanirbhar’ or self-reliant Bharat.

This was in cognisance of the fact that like most of the world, India relied on imports from China for all kinds of equipment, from mobile phones and computers to telecom equipment. This shift is underway, and significant strides have been made to improve India’s manufacturing capabilities. But at the same time, trade with China has only increased. It hit $136 billion in 2022 and most of this trade is what India imports from China. In other words, India’s trade deficit has shot well over $100 billion dollars and this is a major concern.

While China’s focus has been on the return of normalcy in economic ties, Ajit Doval is likely to also have raised India’s concerns about the massive trade deficit with China, calling for a fairer and more balanced economic relationship.

Rebuilding Trust: Not an Easy Task

This meeting between Wang Yi and Ajit Doval isn’t just about resolving border tensions—it’s about rebuilding trust. It’s important to note that nothing is guaranteed from this meeting. There is also no going back when it comes to the critical infrastructure that both sides have built along the border. It’s more about building confidence and setting a roadmap for the future.

Moreover, for India, there is no going back from the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ push. Economic security will be an important factor in every bilateral dialogue. Most importantly, India is a major stakeholder on the world stage and that’s a reality that China will have to face as it deals with New Delhi from here on out.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.