East Champaran Lok Sabha Polls: Smooth Sailing for BJP’s Radha Mohan Singh, INDI Alliance Likely to Fall Short – News18

Purvi Champaran is one of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar. Currently, Purvi Champaran Lok Sabha constituency comprises the following six Vidhan Sabha segments — Harsidhi (BJP), Govindganj (BJP), Kesariya (JDU), Kalyanpur (RJD), Pipra (BJP) and Motihari (BJP). In the 2019 general elections, the BJP led on all these assembly segments. The constituency will vote in phase six on May 25.

Sitting MP: Radha Mohan Singh (BJP)

Key candidates: Radha Mohan Singh (BJP), Rajesh Kushwaha (VIP/I.N.D.I.A.)

POLITICAL DYNAMICS

BJP Confident of Fourth Consecutive Win: The BJP has reposed its faith in three-time MP Radha Mohan Singh and has fielded him once again from Purvi Champaran. In 2019, Radha Mohan Singh registered a staggering victory, defeating RLSP’s Aakash Prasad Singh by a margin of 2.94 lakh votes. The BJP, in 2019, had garnered a vote share of close to 58% here in East Champaran. The sheer margin of victory in 2019 gives it significant legroom to absorb any potential dent which the INDI Alliance may cause this time around.

The fight in Purvi Champaran is turning into one between forward and backward castes. While the backward castes, smaller caste and communities are rallying behind the BJP, the fight for the forward caste vote remains tight. However, due to Muslims consolidating in favour of the INDI Alliance, a counter-polarisation among Hindus is now picking steam.

To add to this, the Ram Mandir’s construction has emerged as a big issue, and the BJP is gaining significantly from the perception that it was the Modi government which fulfilled the promise of building a grand temple at Ayodhya. As such, with voters now getting polarised on religious lines, instead of caste, the BJP is emerging as the net gainer.

Ground inputs suggest a close fight, with the determining factor for the BJP being Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign. The picture will become clearer after PM Modi’s visit to Champaran.

Radha Mohan Singh faces considerable anti-incumbency. However, he has done substantial work as an MP, which appears to be offsetting some of the public anger against him. Besides, voters are conscious of the fact that they are not voting for the candidate, but for strengthening Modi at the Centre. Radha Mohan Singh is himself canvassing votes in the name of PM Modi, a strategy which prima facie appears to be working in the BJP’s favour. In fact, a Modi wave of sorts is visible across Champaran.

The BJP appears to have the upper hand. Its candidate, Radha Mohan Singh is no pushover. Having won Purvi Champaran for three terms straight, he is a powerful leader which the saffron party believes can deliver East Champaran once again.

The Modi government’s scheme to provide free ration to the poor is emerging as a superhit among the electorate, with it being one of the most commonly cited reasons why voters will choose the BJP again.

This being a national election, the BJP also stands the chance of gaining votes from communities that have previously been averse to supporting it. For example, in Champaran, there is a strong possibility of Yadav women voting for the BJP – owing to the Modi government’s welfare schemes, especially its distribution of free ration among the poor. The women voters, as a whole, are  expected to go towards the BJP.

Radha Mohan Singh has about 10% of the Muslims here as his personal vote bank, which will vote for him come what may. Ground inputs suggest the fight between NDA and the INDI bloc is currently placed in a 60:40 ratio, with the BJP expected to gain further after Modi’s campaign.

The BJP, however, is facing some discontent among the Vaishya (Baniya) community. It will be interesting to see how they vote, as Vaishyas are considered the BJP’s core voter base. Initially, there was also some resentment in the BJP camp as MLA Pawan Jaiswal was said to be unhappy with the party over ticket distribution. However, the BJP has since got its house in order, and Jaiswal is back to actively campaigning for his party and Radha Mohan Singh.

INDI Alliance’s Gamble May Prove Insufficient: At first glance, the INDI Alliance appears to be at a slight disadvantage in Champaran East. This stems largely from the alliance’s decision to field a candidate from the Viskassheel Insaan Party (VIP). The VIP has given the ticket to Rajesh Kushwaha.

Ground inputs suggest that the Nishad, Kushwaha, Yadav (males) and Muslim voters are going to largely vote for Kushwaha. They may, however, not be enough to defeat the BJP.

There is significant disillusionment within the RJD’s voter base and cadre over the East Champaran ticket being given to Kushwaha. The RJD cadre and support base, which is crucial to INDI Alliance’s prospects here, is not very enthusiastic about either campaigning or voting for the VIP candidate.

The BJP is making it a priority to further pulverise the INDI Alliance over this issue. The BJP has claimed that RJD gave the ticket to VIP’s Kushwaha as it does not have any “wrestler” in its own ranks to take on the BJP here.

In East Champaran, the INDI Alliance is not able to get its narrative right. While it is talking about unemployment, price rise, farmers distress and other issues of local importance, among a significant chunk of the voters, these are not issues which will determine who they vote for. By implication, this means the BJP is not taking a hit by the attempted localisation of a national election.

Besides, for the INDI Alliance to truly stand a chance to defeat the BJP, there must be widespread resentment among voters to an extent that they openly express their anger and make clear their intentions of punishing the incumbent. This is simply not the case in Champaran, where the BJP won by close to 3 lakh votes in 2019. The sheer margin of the victory gives the BJP ample space to lose some votes and yet not shed a sweat.

Demographics

Total Voters: 17,13,727

SC: 241,636 (14.1%)

ST: 1714 (0.1%)

Geographical Composition

Urban Voters: 1,559,492 (91%)

Rural Voters: 154,235 (9%)

Religious Composition

Hindu: 85.4%

Muslim: 14.3%

KEY ISSUES

Farmer Issues: East Champaran faces floods/drought every year, as well as observes cyclonic storms at a wind speed of 100 mtr/sec. Agriculture and horticulture crops, livestock and fisheries continuously face huge losses due to pest attacks, floods, heat and cold waves. Repeated losses also lead to a burgeoning economic debt crisis. Most of the farmers in the area are small and poor and the increasing cost of electricity, pesticides and fertilisers have cut into their profits. Most farmers have also complained of delayed compensation in both East and West Champaran and have also alleged corruption at the local level.

Hooch: The issue of deaths after consumption of hooch has become a focal point in Champaran. According to a report last year in April, 22 people had died due to consumption of poisonous alcohol. Hooch deaths have plagued the region for decades. The administration had created a Liquor Task Force, however, it has not been impactful in ceasing deaths or consumption. The victims of the hooch tragedy include residents of Turkolia, Harsiddhi, Sugauli and Paharpur area of the East Champaran district. The recent tragedy in Bihar is not an isolated incident. In the past, similar tragedies have claimed hundreds of lives and left many blind. In December 2022, at least 42 people died after consuming spurious liquor in Saran district. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) took suo motu cognisance of the incident and later reported that at least 77 people died as a result of the hooch tragedy.

Suicides: Suicide cases have been on the rise in the Champaran region. According to a report last year, 55 cases of suicides reported in 77 days with a majority of them being women. Locals say that debt, addiction, familial issues have been the major reasons. People also said that most households in the region are reeling under poverty and the stress of being unable to meet the needs of the family forces people to take the extreme step.

Civic Infrastructure: The civic infrastructure in Champaran region is in a dilapidated condition. The condition of roads is poor, many rural areas in the region still do not have access to piped water or electricity. The hospital infrastructure in the region is lacking, it came to light in 2022, during a surprise visit by then deputy CM Tejaswi Yadav to the government-run sub-divisional hospital in Bagaha in West Champaran district. Attendants at the hospital along with patients complained at the lack of basic facilities at the hospital – exposing the abysmal state of healthcare services in the state. People have also complained about the lack of doctors in hospitals, and even those who have been assigned don’t visit irregularly. The same has been the case with the educational institutions in the region, especially government-run primary schools. People have complained at the lack of appointed teachers and the state of infrastructure in the schools. Many schools in the region do not have seats or benches as students are forced to sit on the floor.

Unemployment and migration: Unemployment is a major issue in the Champaran region. With no major industries and the old sugar mill still shut, agriculture and a few cottage industries are the only sources of income for the people. However, due to climatic changes and issues of compensation among others, there has been a major shift in the attitude of the youth who believe migrating towards Patna, Varanasi and Lucknow, Kanpur and New Delhi will yield better employment opportunities.

Floods: Floods are persistent in the region. The areas generally affected by floods in West Champaran are Ramnagar, Narkatiaganj, Mainatand and Chanpatia etc. and in East Champaran Sugauli, Motihari and Lalbegiaghat etc. Motihari town is frequently affected due to the spill of the Sikrahana river. Many locals say despite flooding due to diversion of the Gandak river by Nepal becoming a recurring phenomenon, no help has been provided by the government to those affected by it. Livelihoods, damages to property, crop loss and even loss of lives have become common. Last year, heavy rainfall led to a sudden rise in the river levels, resulting in a flood-like situation in pockets in Supaul, Saharsa, East Champaran, West Champaran, Purnea, Katihar, Araria, Kishanganj and Katihar, affecting at least 2.8 lakh people.

Midday Meal: A total of 184 students of a government-run middle school at Bansgaon Parsauni in West Champaran district of Bihar fell ill after consuming midday meal on February 5, 2024. Students complained of kerosene smell in the meal. They also complained of stomachaches and started to vomit after which they were taken to hospitals. Another report emerged in December last year when 51 students took ill after consuming midday meals. People are agitated at the lax attitude of the school authorities and government officials.

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

1. Gandak River Bridge: An 11.24-km long four-lane bridge will be built on Gandak to directly connect North Bihar with UP. This will be the longest river bridge in the country. This bridge will be constructed in the proposed four-lane connecting NH-727 at Bharpatia in Bettiah to NH-730 at Padrauna in Kushinagar, UP.
2. NH-27AA: This new four-lane road has a total length of 29.22 km. Of this, 27.18 km will be in Bihar and 2.04 km in UP. The proposed road will start from Bharpatia (near Manuapul) of Chanpatia block of Bettiah and will be built till Sewrahi Tiwari Patti of Kushinagar district of UP.
3. City Gas Distribution Project: In March, PM Modi laid the foundation stone for a city gas distribution project in East and West Champaran districts.Piprakothi-Motihari-Raxaul NH 28A: The completion of the 68.5-km long, two-lane Piprakothi-Motihari-Raxaul section of NH-28A in Bihar, featuring paved shoulders, has resulted in significant reduction in travel time. The journey between Piprakothi and Sitamarhi is now one hour shorter, while the travel time between Sitamarhi and Jayanagar has been reduced by three hours. This improved connectivity also enhances access to notable sites, including Janakpur in Nepal.
4. Amrit Bharat: Bettiah railway station has been selected in the centre’s Amrit Bharat railway station upgradation scheme. It will bring a much-needed infrastructure improvement to the railway station and help transform the region into a nodal point for railway connectivity and logistics.
5. LPG bottling plant: Motihari LPG Bottling Plant is a NIP Central PSU Energy Storage project. It was inaugurated by PM Modi in March this year, along with a pipeline and storage unit. The new terminal would also act as a strategic supply point for the export of petroleum products to Nepal.
6. Railway Infrastructure: Rail infrastructure development in Purvi Champaran and Paschim Champaran saw significant improvements in recent years. New DEMU train services were introduced, connecting various stations within the region. Several stations were upgraded with additional platforms, circulating areas and shelters. Electrification of rail lines, including the Sagauli-Valmikinagar section, improved connectivity and efficiency. New freight terminals were constructed at Kumarbagh and Ramgarhwa stations, further bolstering the region’s logistical capabilities. The conversion of Chamua Halt into a crossing station and the addition of a third running line between Semra and Ramgarhwa enhanced the overall efficiency of rail operations.