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Odisha Exit Poll 2024 Shows BJP Could Win Up To 15 Seats, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD Tally May Sink To 8 – News18

Odisha Exit Poll 2024 Shows BJP Could Win Up To 15 Seats, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD Tally May Sink To 8 – News18


A major chunk of the 21 Lok Sabha constituencies in Odisha could go to the BJP while Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) could hold on to 6-8 seats, the New18 Mega Exit Poll predicted on June 1. The poll said the BJP-led NDA could secure 13-15 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Meanwhile, Jharkhand, which sends 14 MPs to Lok Sabha, could see the BJP bagging 9-12 seats while the INDIA bloc could lay hands on 2-5 seats. Jharkhand voted in four phases on May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1, with close to 2.54 crore voters participating in the general election. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, the BJP bagged 11 out of 14 seats in the state.

Of the 21 Odisha Lok Sabha constituencies, five are reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates and three for Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates.

The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) was the frontrunner in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections winning 12 seats. While the BJP secured 8 seats, the Congress put up a dismal show settling for just one seat.

Former Union Ministers Srikant Jena and Pratap Sarangi, BJP national vice-president Baijayant Panda and senior Biju Janata Dal (BJD) leader Rajashree Mallick are involved in intense campaigning to win their respective seats.

The Balasore Lok Sabha seat saw a triangular contest with the Congress’s Srikant Jena, the BJP’s Pratap Sarangi and the BJD’s Lekhashree Samantsinghar. The electoral fight in Mayurbhanj Lok Sabha is expected to be tough for the BJP.

Key Candidates and Constituencies

Balasore: The General category seat will see a triangular contest between BJP’s Pratap Chandra Sarangi, BJD’s Lekhashree Samantsinghar and Congress’ Srikant Kumar Jena. Samantsinghar, who served as the BJP Odisha unit vice-president, quit the party in April 2024 and joined the Naveen Patnaik-led party. In 2019, Sarangi had defeated Rabindra Kumar Jena by a margin of nearly 13,000 votes. While Rabindra Jena had emerged victorious in 2014, Srikant Jena won the seat in 2009 as a Congress candidate.

Bhadrak: The BJD first secured the Scheduled Caste reserved seat in 1998 and since then has continued its winning streak. Former Union minister Arjun Charan Sethi represented the seat a record eight times. The Naveen Patnaik-led party has fielded Manju Lata Mandal, who emerged victorious from the seat in 2019. While the Congress nominated Anant Prasad Sethi from Bhadrak, the BJP has once again fielded Avimanyu Sethi.

Jajpur: Another Scheduled Castes constituency is currently represented by BJD’s Sarmistha Sethi. The BJD has dominated the seat since 1999 when it first secured it. Sethi defeated BJP leader Amiya Kanta Mallick by a margin of over 1 lakh votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election. The BJP is yet to taste success in Jajpur. Anadi Charan Das represented the seat five times, thrice (1971, 1980 & 1984) on Congress ticket and twice (1989 & 1991) as a Janata Dal candidate.

Kendrapara: Kendrapara comprises seven assembly segments — Salipur, Mahanga, Patkura, Kendrapara, Aul, Rajanagar and Mahakalapada. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, actor-turned-politician Anubhav Mohanty defeated BJP leader Baijayant Panda by a margin of over 1.81 lakh votes. BJD has fielded Anshuman Mohanty, a former MLA from Rajanagar, against BJP’s Baijayant Panda. The Congress, which won the first election in Kendrapara in 1951, has nominated Sidharth Swarup Das.

What were the 2014, 2019 Results?

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, BJD had won 12 of the 21 seats, with a vote share of 42.08%. The BJP secured 8 seats, with a vote share of 38.4%. Congress could just hold on to 1 seat.

In the 2014 parliamentary election, the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD won 20 seats while the BJP secured 1 seat.

In Odisha, the BJP and the BJD were initially exploring the idea of forming an alliance, but they have emerged as direct competitors. Experts speculated that a BJP-BJD coalition could have clinched victory in all 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, even against potential competition from the Congress.

THE METHODOLOGY

The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.

A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.

On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.



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