Opinion: Opinion | After Six Hours Of Turmoil, What Next For South Korea?

On December 3 at 10:25 pm Korean Standard Time (KST), surprising news shocked the world as reports spread across social media announcing the imposition of Martial Law by the President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. The announcement was a shock for most South Koreans, who had long enjoyed the benefits of democracy and had only studied the imposition of martial law in history lessons.

The news prompted lawmakers and citizens to gather at the National Assembly, where the opposition, led by Lee Jae-myung, head of the Democratic Party, entered the assembly to vote on the president’s decision. Armed troops attempted to enter the building, jostling with lawmakers and staff, but were unsuccessful in halting proceedings, which led to a vote rejecting the martial law. Following the National Assembly’s decision, the President was forced to lift martial law at 4:40 am KST on December 4, after an ordeal lasting six hours.

While the declaration of emergency martial law was a surprise, it was not entirely unexpected. Many experts had already discussed the possibility of martial law being implemented, particularly after the recent appointment of close allies to Yoon’s cabinet. This raised suspicions about the likelihood of a ‘palace coup’. But what led to this extreme measure?

Reaction To Intensifying Pressure

President Yoon’s administration has been mired in allegations of corruption and misgovernance since 2022. For example, his handling of the doctors’ protest and the Itaewon crowd disaster has faced widespread condemnation from both the opposition and the public. In addition to governance issues, the First Lady has become a focal point, having been accused of corruption, scandals, and exerting undue influence within the presidential office. However, the situation grew more serious after the April National Assembly elections, when the opposition secured a majority, making it difficult for the president’s party to pass legislation and conduct normal proceedings.

The likely reason behind Yoon’s extreme step was the growing pressure from all sides, including the Democratic Party (DP), the public, and his own party. This pressure intensified in September when the 22nd Assembly’s first regular session began. Following that, Yoon faced increasing partisan strife as the assembly turned hostile, repeatedly demanding accountability from the president over actions taken against the First Lady. Just last week, the president vetoed a bill passed by the opposition for the third time, calling for a special counsel investigation into corruption charges against the First Lady. The tension between the president and the legislature also coincided with his declining popularity.

In his public address declaring martial law, he stated, “I declare martial law to protect the Republic of Korea from the threats of North Korean communist forces, to immediately eradicate the unscrupulous pro-Pyongyang antistate forces that pillage the freedom and happiness of our people, and to protect free constitutional order.” He described the opposition’s decision to block the National Assembly from functioning as a “legislature dictatorship”, which had paralysed the administration and sabotaged state functions. The speech highlighted his frustration with the opposition in the country.

With rising allegations against his wife and his falling popularity, the president also faced increasing pressure from within his party, particularly from Han Dong-hoon, the People Power Party (PPP) leader who publicly urged the president to take action. Sensing that he was losing support from the public and the party, and that the opposition’s tactics were succeeding, he may have felt compelled to take this drastic step, which was supported only by a select few in the cabinet. As reported by the media, the Chungam Faction—a small group of close aides, including the president and the Defence Minister—took the decision without consulting the Prime Minister or the party. This indicates that the president felt he had no choice but to declare martial law to save his presidency.

What Lies Ahead for Yoon and His Party?

After the martial law was lifted, the entire cabinet offered to resign en masse. Several senior officials in the presidential offices, including the Presidential Chief of Staff, National Security Adviser, Chief of Staff for Policy, and seven others, have already submitted their resignations. The ruling party, PPP, has apologised for the president’s decision, stating, “As the ruling party, we deeply apologise to the public for this distressing situation”, while its leader, Han Dong-hoon, has called for immediate action against Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who was instrumental in making the decision alongside the president.

In contrast, the DP, the opposition, has not relented. It has doubled down after this incident and resolved to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Yoon if he refuses to resign immediately, calling his decision a “clear violation of the constitution” and further stating that it constitutes “a serious act of rebellion and a perfect reason for impeachment”.

While the impeachment process may take some time, beginning in the National Assembly and then moving through the Constitutional Court, the first leg of the process is expected to proceed swiftly. Six parties, led by the opposition DP, have already submitted the impeachment bill yesterday, which will be listed today. The impeachment procedure requires a majority to propose a motion and support from two-thirds of the National Assembly for it to pass. Although the DP holds 170 seats in the assembly, it still requires 200 votes to secure the motion. Even with the support of smaller parties, such as the New Reform Party, the number reaches only 192—eight short of the expected total. Even if the motion passes through the National Assembly, the judicial process is likely to take much longer due to the procedural requirements for the Constitutional Court.

Furthermore, the opposition is expected to push for a serious investigation into the procedures surrounding the declaration of martial law, including examining the process behind the summoning of state council meetings for approval, with a view to supporting insurrection charges against the president. Nonetheless, what is certain is that the president’s political career is likely over as a result of this decision. It will also have a significant impact on the prospects of his party, which was already plagued by serious allegations and internal conflict before this incident.

However, it remains to be seen whether the PPP, the ruling party, will oppose the president’s impeachment, which, if it does, will further damage the party’s reputation. On the other hand, adopting a ‘keep-at-arm’s-length’ approach by distancing itself from the president may help it save face. From this incident, which lasted only six hours, one thing is clear: this political drama has showcased South Korea’s remarkable democratic resilience.

(Abhishek Sharma is a Research Assistant with ORF and a PhD Candidate in Korean Studies at Delhi University.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author