The BJP is predicted to bag all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh that is currently being ruled by the Congress, according to the News18 Mega Exit Poll. Another hill state, Uttarakhand, that sends five MPs to the Lok Sabha, could also be in its grip, the exit poll forecasted on June 1.
Himachal Pradesh is the one of the three states apart from Karnataka and Telangana that is ruled by the Congress. The four Lok Sabha constituencies of the hill state went to polls in the seventh and the last phase on June 1. The Congress defeated the BJP in the 2022 Assembly elections, winning 40 of the 68 seats, and appointing Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu as the chief minister.
According to the data shared by the Election Commission, there are over 1.70 lakh voters across the state aged between 18 and 19 years.
The BJP has emerged as a formidable political force in Himachal Pradesh over the years. The party has capitalised on issues such as development, good governance, and national security to garner support among the electorate. As a result, Himachal Pradesh has a history of alternating between Congress and BJP governments in state elections. Shanta Kumar of the BJP served as the chief minister from 1977 to 1980 and then again from 1990 to 1992, followed by Virbhadra Singh of the Congress who held the office several times from 1983 to 2017.
Key Candidates
Key Constituencies
Shimla: Suresh Kashyap of the BJP defends Shimla, a reserved Scheduled Caste (SC) seat. The BJP has held sway since 2009. Vinod Sultanpuri from Congress will challenge BJP’s dominance. In 2019, Suresh Kumar Kashyap from the BJP clinched this seat by securing 6,06,183 votes, with Congress’s Dhani Ram Shandil coming in second with 2,78,668 votes. In 2014, Virender Kashyap from the BJP became the MP for the second time, defeating Congress’s Mohan Lal by 84,000 votes.
Mandi: The seat traditionally leans towards the Congress. But it voted for the BJP in the previous two Lok Sabha Elections. In 2019, BJP’s Ram Swaroop Sharma clinched the seat with 6,47,189 votes, overshadowing Congress Ashray Sharma and CPI (M)s Dilip Singh Kayath, who secured 2,41,730 and 14,838 votes, respectively. In 2014, Ram Swaroop Sharma of the BJP emerged victorious against Congress Pratibha Singh, a former two-time MP, by a margin of 39,000 votes. Sharma garnered 3.62 lakh votes to Singh’s 3.22 lakh, with CPI (M)’s Kushal Bhardwaj finishing third.
Kangra: Being a major tourist attraction, the seat depends on agriculture and small cottage industries for its economy. In 2019 Lok Sabha Election, BJP’s Ram Swaroop Sharma clinched the seat with 6,47,189 votes, overshadowing Congress’ Ashray Sharma and CPI (M)’s Dilip Singh Kayath, who secured 2,41,730 and 14,838 votes, respectively. In 2014, Ram Swaroop Sharma of the BJP emerged victorious against Congress’ Pratibha Singh, a former two-time MP, by a margin of 39,000 votes. Sharma garnered 3.62 lakh votes to Singh’s 3.22 lakh, with CPI (M)’s Kushal Bhardwaj finishing third.
Hamirpur: Anurag Thakur of BJP aims for a fifth consecutive win, defending Hamirpur against Satpal Raizada of Congress. In 2019, BJP’s Anurag Singh Thakur retained the seat for the third time, receiving 6,82,692 votes. Congress’s Ram Lal Thakur received 2,83,120 votes. In 2014, Thakur won by a margin of 98,000 votes. He received 4.48 lakh votes, while Congress candidate Rajendra Singh Rana received 3.49 lakh votes. Aam Aadmi Party’s Kamal Kant Batra came third, receiving 15,000 votes. Interestingly, the margin of BJP’s victory in this seat in the last four elections has averaged 80,000 votes.
What were the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha Results?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, the BJP won all four seats, with a vote share of 69.7%. The voter turnout was 80.1%. Anurag Thakur won from Hamirpur by a margin of 3,99,572. From Kangra, Kishan Kapoor won by 4,77,623, while Ram Swaroop and Suresh Kumar Kashyap won from Mandi and Shimla, respectively.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had a thumping victory on all four seats with a vote share of 53.9%. BJP’s Anurag Singh Thakur won from the Hamirpur seat, Shanta Kumar from Kangra, Ram Swaroop Sharma from Mandi, and Virender Kashyap from the reserved seat of Shimla. The Congress, which polled 41.1% votes, failed to win any seat. Himachal Pradesh had a total of 4,810,069 registered electors, of whom 3,100,199, voted across 7,385 polling stations.
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand went to polls in the first phase on April 19 to elect 5 MPs from the state. There are roughly 82 lakh voters. The BJP swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by emerging victorious on all the constituencies – Tehri Garhwal, Garhwal, Almora, Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar and Haridwar.
Earlier this year, Uttarakhand chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami announced Uniform Civil Code to be implemented in the state where all religions will be treated under one law. This was a significant step that the BJP government in the state took after the Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya in January.
Key Constituencies and Candidates
Haridwar: Since 2014, the BJP has been in power in Haridwar, a constituency which was once represented by former Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat. The seat was reserved for candidates belonging to the Scheduled Castes (SC) between 1977 and 2009. Former minister of education and the fifth chief minister of Uttarakhand Ramesh Pokhriyal defeated Congress candidate Ambrish Kumar in 2019 with a vote margin of over 2,58,000 votes. In 2014, Pokhriyal had emerged victorious from the seat.
BJP has fielded Trivendra Singh Rawat from Haridwar against Congress’ Virender Rawat, son of Harish Rawat.
Garhwal: Established in 1957, Garhwal covers five districts of Chamoli, Pauri Garhwal, Rudraprayag, Nainital (part) and Tehri Garhwal (part). Popular for sacred shrines like Badrinath and Kedarnath, this constituency is currently represented by BJP’s Tirath Singh Rawat. In the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, BJP’s Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri defeated Congress candidate Harak Singh Rawat with a margin of over 1,84,000 votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Garhwal recorded 55% voter turnout.
The BJP has fielded Anil Baluni against Congress’ Ganesh Godiyal.
Almora: It is reserved for candidates belonging to the Scheduled Castes (SC) since 2009. The Lok Sabha constituency comprises four districts — Bageshwar, Champawat, Almora and Pithoragarh. Almora was a Congress stronghold since 1952 when the constituency came into existence. However, the BJP snatched the seat from the grand old party in 1996 and has managed to retain Almora ever since except in 2009. BJP’s Ajay Tamta emerged victorious from Almora in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Tamta is eyeing his third straight win from the seat. The Congress has Pradeep Tamta, who lost the previous two elections to Ajay Tamta.
THE METHODOLOGY
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.
On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
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