Pre-poll survey predicts LDF win in Kerala Assembly polls

A pre-poll survey has predicted a win for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Assembly elections in April. C-Fore, a multi-disciplinary research organisation, had partnered with a major Malayalam television news channel to broadcast the survey results on Sunday.

The pollsters predicted an LDF win with 72 to 78 seats. If so, it would be a watershed in electoral politics in Kerala. The methodology adopted by C-Fore was not immediately known. However, the news channel indicated voter profiling, and statistical inferences and mathematical projections had informed the prediction.

The survey firm gave 59 to 65 seats for the UDF and between three and seven seats for the BJP. It said LDF was poised for a sweep in south Kerala with a 41% of the vote share. The survey gave 12 to 14 seats with 37% of the vote share to the UDF. The NDA was set to bag 20% of the vote share in the region.

Other contenders

The poll also showed a high approval rating for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Thirty-nine per cent of the respondents said Mr. Vijayan was most suited to the post. Eighteen per cent threw in their lot with former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. Shashi Tharoor, MP, (9%) and Health Minister K.K. Shylaja (7%) had a higher approval rating than Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala for the Chief Minister’s post (6%). Mr. Chennithala’s rating was on a par with that of BJP State president K. Surendran. Only 4% of the respondents preferred KPCC president Mullappally Ramachandran as Chief Minister.

The UDF had an edge in central Kerala (23 to 25 seats) over the LDF (16 to 18 seats). The coalition seemed positioned to garner 42% of the vote share compared to 39% by the LDF. The survey predicted dominance for the LDF in north Kerala with 32 to 34 seats and 43% of the vote share. It limited UDF seats between 24 and 26 despite winning a projected 39% of the votes.

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