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The statements of Chandrababu Naidu and MK Stalin highlighted a general concern among the southern states that the delimitation process — which is based on the last census — will reduce their representation in Parliament
Both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been a victim of drop in Lok Sabha seats after the 1962 delimitation. (PTI)
For the first time in its history, India managed to achieve total fertility rate below replacement level fertility but leaders from southern India seem to be taking a different stand as they asked people to have more children.
But why exactly are the chief ministers making this demand after it took India decades of efforts in population control to show results? The answer is hidden in the state-wise total fertility rate (TFR), which is much lower for the southern states than northern.
The TFR is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. For zero population growth, the TFR should be at the replacement level fertility of 2.1 — where population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
For years, various governments in India have held several campaigns to stabilise the population with an overall total fertility rate of 2.1. As per the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), held during 2019-21, India achieved this feat for the first time in 2021 when the national average of the TFR touched 1.99. The TFR ranges from 1.1 children per woman in Sikkim to three children per woman in Bihar.
It is also important to note that major states have performed exceptionally well but still some of the states have higher TFR than the national average or above 2.1.
As many as 31 states and Union Territories, including all the states in the South, have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However, Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17) have TFR more than 2.1. The situation in Bihar, UP and Jharkhand is worrisome. While UP is the most populous state in India as per the 2011 census, Bihar is third and Jharkhand is in the list of top 15.
The below-replacement fertility eventually results in negative population growth but over a very long time — at least a few decades. That is the case with the southern states.
For a long time, the states in south India had lower TFR. In the third survey of NFHS in 2005-06, all these states had TFR below or at 2.1. While at that time the average TFR of India and that of most of the Indian states situated in the north was much higher, as depicted in the chart.
In India, Kerala was the first state to reach the TRF of 2.1 or below in 1988. Tamil Nadu joined the team in 1993. Andhra Pradesh (2001) and Karnataka (2005) were next in the list. Telangana has TFR below two since its formation.
What are the leaders saying?
In the last seven days, two chief ministers from south India have requested their people to have more children.
First, it was Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and then his Tamil Nadu counterpart MK Stalin said the Parliament delimitation process may encourage couples to have many children and give up thoughts of a small family. “…now a situation has arisen where people think they should now literally raise 16 children and not a small and prosperous family,” Stalin said.
Delimitation Process and its link with population
After every census, a delimitation commission is formed that demarcates the boundaries of the parliamentary constituencies as per provisions of the Delimitation Act.
The present delimitation of constituencies has been done on the basis of 2001 Census figures under the provisions of Delimitation Act, 2002.
The Constitution of India was specifically amended in 2002 not to have delimitation of constituencies till the first census after 2026. Thus, the present constituencies carved out on the basis of the 2001 census will continue to be in operation till the first census after 2026.
Population of the state is the basis of allocation of seats of the Lok Sabha. Every state and UT gets representation in the Lok Sabha in proportion to its population as per the census. Due to low population, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Lakshadweep, Ladakh and Puducherry have one seat each.
The total number of Lok Sabha seats in 1951 was 489 that has increased to 543 now after four rounds of delimitation held in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. In the delimitation of 1973, the total Lok Sabha seats increased to 543 — maintained till date.
To sum it up, a state with higher population may get divided into more Lok Sabha seats that means more representation in the Lower House and more funds to the area. On the other hand, a state that has managed to control its population will result in fewer seats than before or no change at all.
While Rajasthan is the state with the highest area, Uttar Pradesh has the highest Lok Sabha seats because of its pollution. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar collectively account for 140 Lok Sabha seats — more than one-fourth of the total constituencies across India. On the other hand, the five south Indian states — Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana — have just 129 Lok Sabha seats with them.
The Concern
The statements of the two CMs highlighted a general concern among the southern states that the delimitation process — which is based on the last census — will reduce their representation in Parliament.
Earlier this year, the Tamil Nadu assembly adopted a resolution opposing the scheduled delimitation exercise for redrawing of poll constituencies in 2026.
These two states have been a victim of drop in Lok Sabha seats after the 1962 delimitation. Tamil Nadu, as Madras, had 41 Lok Sabha seats in 1962 while Andhra Pradesh had 43 seats. Both the states lost two seats each.
In August 2021, a bench of Madras High Court observed that Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have faced unfair representation in the Lok Sabha since 1962 because the states reduced their population by carrying out family planning measures — pushed by the Union government for years.
The high court said the states should be compensated either financially or by increasing their representation in the Rajya Sabha. There has been no change in the total number of Lok Sabha seats since 1977.
Possible Outcome
While the numbers are not official, a rough calculation shows that the total Lok Sabha seats in India may go up by around 200 in the next delimitation.
If that happens, Uttar Pradesh would have a whopping 143 seats, while Kerala’s will remain at 20 Lok Sabha constituencies. The situation across various states has been shown in the chart.
As per an article ‘India’s emerging crisis of representation’ published in Carnegie Endowment for International Peace by Jamie Hintson and Milan Vaishnav in 2019, taking the projected population for 2026 as the base, if no state is to lose representation, the Lok Sabha would have to consist of 846 MPs.
So, even if the number of Lok Sabha seats for the states with lower TFR is not reduced, it will also not increase in the proportion of the states with higher TFR, resulting in lower representation.
The last time India conducted its census was in 2011. The one meant to be held in 2021 was postponed due to the spread of coronavirus infection.
The government has said that the next census will be carried out after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that finished in June. However, the process may be delayed as the delimitation can only take place considering the first census after 2026. For the next delimitation to take place, India needs to have a census in hand conducted post 2026. Both these things can take more than five years to finalise.
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