Russian President Vladimir Putin met his “comrade” Kim Jong Un in North Korea’s capital Pyongyang on Wednesday in a rare visit to the state in 24 years amid the Ukraine war. State-controlled North Korean news agency KCNA said Kim “could not contain his joy” at what it described as a “touching reunion”.
Both the leaders, whose countries face escalating standoffs with west, have signed a mutual partnership that includes a vow to aid if either country is attacked. North Korea is under heavy UN Security Council sanctions over its weapons programme, while Russia also faces sanctions by the US and its Western partners over its aggression in Ukraine.
There are growing concerns that an arms arrangement has been made between the two countries in which North Korea provides Russia with munitions for its war in Ukraine in exchange of economic assistance and technology transfers to Pyongyang.
The “comprehensive strategic partnership” does not clarify the kind of assistance that both the countries have signed up for.
What will North Korea Get?
The West has accused North Korea of circumventing international sanctions to transfer arms and missiles to Russia but Pyongyang has denied any such handover. Russia is likely providing North Korea with food, fuel and military technology for its satellites and submarines, according to analysts quoted by CNBC.
Experts say Kim’s wishlist includes technologies related to advanced telemetry, nuclear-powered submarines, military satellites, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russian technology likely contributed to Pyongyang’s first successful military spy satellite launch in November 2023 — just two months after the last Putin-Kim summit.
Kim said Moscow and Pyongyang’s “fiery friendship” is now even closer than during Soviet times, and promised “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine to protect sovereignty, security interests and territorial integrity,” as quoted by news agency The Associated Press.
North Korea may also seek to increase labour exports to Russia and other illicit activities to gain foreign currency in defiance of UN Security Council sanctions, according to a recent report by the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank run by South Korea’s main spy agency. There will likely be talks about expanding cooperation in agriculture, fisheries and mining and promoting Russian tourism to North Korea, the institute said.
What will Russia Get?
Since the war began in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s isolation by the West has increased, and Putin has been seeking partners and customers in the East for its oil and commodities.
Russia’s military, which has been placed on a war-footing, is facing a shortfall of what it can produce monthly and how much is being spent on it on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Putin needs Kim’s weapons to make up for a monthly munition shortfall of 50,000 rounds, even if Russia is producing ammunition at full capacity in the pursuit of victory in Ukraine, per the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
According to a US statement in February, Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tonnes of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September. Russian forces have also launched at least 10 North Korea-made missiles on Ukraine since September, a US official said, quoted by CNN.
Putin also sees the relationship with Kim as a way to raise the specter of nuclear war, exploiting “US and South Korean concerns about North Korea” so that the Ukraine allies will be compelled to negotiate on Russia’s terms, analysts believe.
Observers also believe that Putin is unlikely at this point to directly help North Korea’s nuclear programme, as neither Putin nor his close partner Xi want to see nuclear confrontation in the region, a CNN report mentioned.
In March, a Russian veto at the United Nations ended monitoring of UN sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear programme, prompting Western accusations that Moscow is seeking to avoid scrutiny as it buys weapons from Pyongyang for use in Ukraine.
What Does the Visit Mean to the US and China?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called Putin’s visit to North Korea “in desperation, to develop and to strengthen relations with countries that can provide it with what it needs to continue the war of aggression that it started against Ukraine.”
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “We’re not concerned about the trip. What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries.”
Kirby said this concern was “not just because of the impact it’s going to have on the Ukrainian people, because we know North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets, but because there could be some reciprocity here that could affect security on the Korean peninsula.”
Washington has an opportunity to exert strategic influence by working with like-minded South Korea and Japan against the Kim, Putin and Xi Jinping who are united in opposition to the US and the Western liberal order.
Meanwhile, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian said at a briefing that the summit was a bilateral exchange between Russia and North Korea but did not elaborate.
“China has certain reservations regarding North Korea’s deepening military cooperation with Russia, which could undermine Beijing’s near monopoly of geopolitical influence over Pyongyang,” said Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as quoted by Reuters.
China proclaimed a “no limits” relationship with Russia just days before Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but Beijing has so far avoided providing weapons and ammunition for the war effort.
South Korea, where senior Chinese foreign and defence officials’ visit coincide with Putin’s visit to North Korea, said, “Our side expressed concern about Russian President Putin’s visit to North Korea scheduled on the same day, and China expressed hope that exchanges between Russia and North Korea would contribute to peace and stability in the region.”
China would become concerned if North Korea’s partnership with Russia leads to provocative behaviour that makes the regional situation more difficult for Beijing as it wants to rebuild its economy and do trade, said Niklas Swanstrom, Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden, as mentioned by Reuters.
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