Will a coin decide the winner of the India-Pakistan match: After 2007, all matches were won by the chasing team; all matches were low-scoring

Ravichandran Ashwin takes a run on Mohammad Nawaz’s ball and the Indian team wins a thrilling 4-wicket victory over Pakistan. Virat Kohli, who was present at the crease with Ashwin at that time, proved to be the biggest hero of the Indian victory. He played a brilliant innings of 82 runs in 53 balls. This incident is from the India-Pakistan match in the last T20 World Cup held in 2022.

That match was decided on the last ball, but when both the teams face each other again in the same tournament on June 9, it is possible that the result of the match may be decided before the match. That is, who will win or lose the match, it can be decided to a large extent at the time of the toss. Why will this happen, let’s understand further…

71% of the matches in the World Cup were won by the team batting second
The first T20 match between India and Pakistan was played in the 2007 World Cup. This match in Durban was a tie, but India won the match through a bowl out. Including this, 7 matches were played between the two in the T20 World Cup. In 2007, the teams batting first won both times.

There was no match between the two in 2009 and 2010. Since 2012, India-Pak match has taken place in every World Cup. All five times the team batting second won. In 2021, Pakistan defeated India in the only World Cup match while batting second. That is, the team batting second won 71% of the matches.

Both the teams have played a total of 12 T-20 matches. In these too, the team batting second won 9 times, the team batting first won 3 matches. That means the concept of bowling first brought success in 75% of the matches.

Why is toss important in India-Pakistan match?
Reason-1: Chasing is easy in T20
Since 2021, 50% of the T20 matches of the top-10 teams were won by chasing teams. Teams batting first were successful only 43% of the times. The rest of the matches were either inconclusive or tied. Generally, most of the games in the T20 format are played at night, where batting becomes easier in the second innings due to dew. This is because due to dew, bowlers are not able to control the ball easily and batsmen start playing shots freely on bad balls. However, the India-Pakistan match to be held on June 9 will be held in daytime.

Reason-2: It is better to chase in a high pressure game
In knockout and high pressure matches like India-Pakistan, the pressure is more on the team batting first. The team batting second has a target in front of them, due to which it is easy to build an innings. Bowling first in a high pressure game is not a guarantee of victory, but it gives more opportunity to put pressure on the other team.

Reason-3: New York pitch makes batting difficult first
The match between India and Pakistan will be held at Nassau County Stadium in New York. The stadium was built for the T20 World Cup. Very little time was available to build it, so a drop-in pitch was brought from Australia. The pitch was heavily criticized after the initial matches. Uneven bounce, excessive swing and poor outfield were seen here. ICC also said on the behavior of the pitch that they are trying to improve it.

However, in the matches played so far, batting later has proved beneficial here as well. Because in America, the match starts in the morning and hence the pitch remains moist, which helps the bowlers. As the sunshine increases, the pitch becomes more helpful for batting as compared to the first innings. That is why batting later is also beneficial here. So far, 3 matches have been played in New York, 2 times the chasing team and once the team batting first won. In the first 2 matches, the score was less than 100 runs, while in the third match, Canada scored 137 runs and restricted Ireland to 125.

Let’s know what has been the trend of India-Pakistan matches played so far in T20 World Cup…

In 2007, both matches were won by the team batting first
In 2007, India and Pakistan were in the same group and they clashed on 14 September. Pakistan won the toss and chose to bowl. India scored 141 runs for the loss of 9 wickets. Pakistan could also score only 141 runs in the second innings and the match was tied. However, India won the match in the then tie-breaker rule of bowl out.

In 2007, India and Pakistan clashed in the final again. This time India won the toss and chose to bat and scored 157 runs for the loss of 5 wickets. Pakistan came close to the score but was all out for 152 runs in 19.3 overs. That means in both the initial matches, the team batting first was successful.

From 2012 to 2022, only the chasing team won
In 2012, Pakistan won the toss and chose to bat at the Colombo ground, but the team was all out after scoring 128 runs in 19.4 overs. With the help of Virat Kohli’s fifty, India achieved the target by losing only 2 wickets in 17 overs.

In 2014, India won the toss and chose to bowl at Mirpur ground. Pakistan could only score 130 runs for 7 wickets. India easily achieved the target in 18.3 overs at the loss of 3 wickets.

In 2016, India won the toss and chose to bowl at the Kolkata ground. Due to rain, the match was reduced to 18-18 overs, Pakistan scored 118 runs for 5 wickets. India won the match by losing 4 wickets in 15.5 overs.

In 2021, Pakistan won the toss and chose to bowl at the Dubai ground. India could only score 151 runs after losing 7 wickets. Pakistan achieved the target without any loss in 17.5 overs. Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam made a record partnership of 152 runs.

In 2022, India won the toss and chose to bowl at the Melbourne ground. Pakistan scored 159 runs for 8 wickets. India lost 4 wickets for just 31 runs, from here Hardik Pandya and Virat Kohli took over the innings. Kohli scored 82 runs and led India to a 4-wicket win in a match that went on till the last ball.

159 runs highest score in first innings
In the 7 World Cup matches played so far, 159 runs was the highest score in the first innings, which Pakistan made in 2022 at the Melbourne ground. However, India chased it. 118 runs was the lowest score between the two, which Pakistan made in 2016. However, this match was reduced to 18-18 overs due to rain.

The lowest score in the first innings in a 20-over game was 128, which was also made by Pakistan in 2012. That means, till now only low scoring matches have been played between the two in the World Cup, in which the score could reach only 118 to 159 runs.

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Graphics: Kunal Sharma
Sketch: Sandeep Pal

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