Turkey Elections: Early Results Favour Erdogan, But These Three Big Cities Might Have a Dramatic Effect

As the vote counting continues in Turkey, the results of the elections could potentially be influenced by the votes from the country’s three largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.

At present, over 60% of the votes from across the nation have been counted, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently leading. However, a significant number of votes from the major cities are yet to be counted, BBC reported.

Istanbul, with a population of 16 million, along with the capital city Ankara and the western city of Izmir, with a combined population of 10 million, still have only half of their votes counted.

In the ongoing count, Kemal Kilicdaroglu appears to be ahead in Izmir and Istanbul, while Erdogan has a narrow lead in Ankara.

The city of Izmir is known as a stronghold for the opposition party CHP, and since the 2015 elections, the party has significantly increased its support in Istanbul and Ankara.

Earlier, opinion surveys reveal Erdogan, an increasingly authoritarian leader, is facing a challenger in his bid for reelection.

Faik Oztrak, a spokesman for Kilicdaroglu’s center-left party, cautions that the early returns are preliminary but paints an extremely positive picture for the opposition.

Erdogan has held power in Turkey as prime minister or president since 2003. Pre-election polls suggest that he is facing the toughest reelection battle in his two decades of leadership, as the country grapples with economic turmoil and the erosion of democratic checks-and-balances.

The national election, which closed after nine hours of voting, has the potential to grant Erdogan, 69, another five-year term or see him unseated by Kilicdaroglu, who campaigned on a promise to return Turkey to a more democratic path. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a run-off will take place on May 28 to determine the winner.

In addition to the presidential race, voters also elected lawmakers to fill Turkey’s 600-seat parliament, which has lost much of its legislative power under Erdogan’s executive presidency.

If Erdogan’s political alliance wins, he could continue governing without many restrictions. However, the opposition has promised to restore Turkey’s governance system to a parliamentary democracy if it wins both the presidential and parliamentary ballots.

Pre-election polls show a slight lead for Kilicdaroglu, 74, who is the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance. He leads the center-left, pro-secular Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Over 64 million people, including 3.4 million overseas voters, were eligible to vote in these elections, coinciding with the centenary of Turkey’s establishment as a republic—a modern, secular state that emerged from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.

While voter turnout in Turkey is traditionally strong, reflecting citizens’ belief in democratic balloting, the country has experienced a suppression of freedom of expression and assembly under Erdogan.

Additionally, it faces a steep cost-of-living crisis, with critics blaming the government’s mishandling of the economy.

Erdogan’s belief that low interest rates tame inflation, contrary to orthodox economic theory, has led to pressure on the central bank to reflect his view. Although official statistics indicate a decrease in inflation, independent experts believe that costs continue to rise at a much higher rate.

Furthermore, Turkey is grappling with the aftermath of a powerful earthquake that devastated 11 southern provinces in February, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives in unsafe buildings.

Erdogan’s government has faced criticism for its delayed and inadequate response to the disaster, as well as its lax implementation of building codes, which worsened the casualties and suffering.

These elections are being closely watched internationally as a test of the united opposition’s ability to dislodge a leader who has concentrated nearly all state powers in his hands. Erdogan survived a military coup attempt in 2016, which he attributed to followers of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.

(With AP inputs)